I enjoy watching The Oscars (or The Academy Awards if you prefer) and always like to see how much the voters and myself end up agreeing.
With that being said, here are my predictions of who I think will win each category, and if different, who I think should win.
Best Picture
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
TÁR
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking
Who I think will win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Who I think should win: The Fabelmans
I've seen all 10 of these Best Picture Nominees and The Fabelmans is the one that stuck with the most.
I'll be surprised though if Everything Everywhere All at Once doesn't win. For the record, I'd list The Fabelmans, The Banshees of Inisherin, and Everything Everywhere All At Once, as my top 3 movies in order.
Best Director
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Todd Field, TÁR
Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness
Who I think will win: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Who I think should win: Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Basically, the same reasoning as above can be said here. The very last shot in The Fabelmans by Spielberg had me saying "nice" out loud in the theater. Haha.
Best Actor
Austin Butler, Elvis
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living
Who I think will win: Austin Butler, Elvis
I've seen all 5 of these films and it appears that it will really come down to two of them. Austin Butler and Brendan Fraser have both won awards for their roles. It is really hard to compare the two since Butler's character is based off a real person and Fraser's is a fictional character. That being said, Butler did a tremendous job as Elvis and I think he is deserving. Will I be upset if Fraser wins though? Absolutely not.
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, TÁR
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Who I think will win: Cate Blanchett, TÁR
I've seen all 5 of the films in this category. Cate Blanchett does so well, I don't see how she can't win. However, Michelle Yeoh might give her a run for her money.
Best Supporting Actor
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Who I think will win: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
I've seen all 4 of the films in this category and I think it'd be the biggest surprise of the night if Ke Huy Quan doesn't walk away a winner.
Best Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau, The Whale
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Who I think will win: Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Who I think should win: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
I've seen all 4 films in this category and this might be the toughest one to call out of the entire group. Will Jamie Lee Curtis and Stephanie Hsu take votes away from each other? Angela Bassett won the Golden Globe for her role but it seems like hype around her has been fading recently. Hong Chau was great but I'd argue she was even better in her role in The Menu.
Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, and Ian Stokell, All Quiet on the Western Front
Rian Johnson, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Kazuo Ishiguro, Living
Screenplay by Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, and Christopher McQuarrie, story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks, Top Gun: Maverick
Sarah Polley, Women Talking
Who I think will win: Sarah Polley, Women Talking
I've seen all 5 of these films and Women Talking thrives so much on just dialogue alone, that's why I see it winning.
Best Writing (Original Screenplay)
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner, The Fabelmans
Todd Field, TÁR
Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness
Who I think will win: Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
I've seen all 5 of these films and while I loved The Fabelmans more overall, it is hard to ignore the uniqueness and brilliance in the writing of The Banshees of Inisherin.
Best Animated Feature Film
Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
Puss In Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red
Who I think will win: Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
I've only seen 3 of the 5 films in this category, but this pick seems like a slam dunk. The only possible upset I can maybe see happening is from Puss In Boots: The Last Wish.
Best International Feature Film
All Quiet on the Western Front
Argentina, 1985
Close
EO
The Quiet Girl
Who I think will win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Who I think should win: Close
I've only seen 3 of the 5 films in this category, but seeing how it was also nominated for Best Picture, it'd be hard to imagine anything but All Quiet on the Western Front winning this category. That being said, I thought the movie Close was quite good itself.
Best Documentary Feature
All That Breathes
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Fire of Love
A House Made of Splinters
Navalny
Who I think will win: Navalny
I've only seen 1 of the films in this category and it is the one I am picking to win, because I feel lucky!
Also, I did think the film was pretty powerful too.
Best Film Editing
Mikkel E.G. Nielsen, The Banshees of Inisherin
Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond, Elvis
Paul Rogers, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Monika Willi, TÁR
Eddie Hamilton, Top Gun: Maverick
Who I think will win: Paul Rogers, Everything Everywhere All at Once
I've seen all 5 of the films in this category and the editing in Everything Everywhere All at Once was quite remarkable.
Best Cinematography
James Friend, All Quiet on the Western Front
Darius Khondji, Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
Mandy Walker, Elvis
Roger Deakins, Empire of Light
Florian Hoffmeister, TÁR
Who I think will win: James Friend, All Quiet on the Western Front
I've seen all 5 of the films in this category and although Roger Deakins is a big name in cinematography, I'm going with James Friend. Although, Darius Khondji might win this one too. Tough category here!
Best Costume Design
Mary Zophres, Babylon
Ruth E. Carter, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Catherine Martin, Elvis
Shirley Kurata, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Jenny Beavan, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Who I think will win: Shirley Kurata, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Who I think should win: Catherine Martin, Elvis
I've seen all 5 films in this category and I really think it comes down to these two films.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Heike Merker and Linda Eisenhamerová, All Quiet on the Western Front
Naomi Donne, Mike Marino, and Mike Fontaine, The Batman
Camille Friend and Joel Harlow, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Mark Coulier, Jason Baird, and Aldo Signoretti, Elvis
Adrien Morot, Judy Chin, and Anne Marie Bradley, The Whale
Who I think will win: Mark Coulier, Jason Baird, and Aldo Signoretti, Elvis
I've seen all 5 of the films in this category and think this comes down to Elvis and The Whale. Whoever wins this might foreshadow who wins best actor.
Best Production Design
Christian M. Goldbeck and Ernestine Hipper, All Quiet on the Western Front
Dylan Cole, Ben Procter, and Vanessa Cole, Avatar: The Way of Water
Florencia Martin and Anthony Carlino, Babylon
Catherine Martin, Karen Murphy, and Bev Dunn, Elvis
Rick Carter and Karen O'Hara, The Fabelmans
Who I think will win: Florencia Martin and Anthony Carlino, Babylon
I've seen all 5 of the films in this category and I think Babylon will and should win for best production design.
Best Music (Original Song)
"Applause" from Tell It Like a Woman, music and lyrics by Dianne Warren
"Hold My Hand" from Top Gun: Maverick, music and lyrics by Lady Gaga and BloodPop
"Lift Me Up" from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, music and lyrics by Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler, and Ludwig Goransson
"Naatu Naatu" from RRR, music by M.M. Keeravaani, lyrics by Chandrabose
"This Is a Life" from Everything Everywhere All at Once, music by Ryan Lott, David Byrne, and Mitski, lyrics by Ryan Lott
Who I think will win: "Naatu Naatu" from RRR, music by M.M. Keeravaani, lyrics by Chandrabose
I've seen 3 of the 5 films in this category, but don't remember any of the songs that well, but I'm thinking "Naatu Naatu" will come out victorious. Although a Lady Gaga win for "Hold My Hand" wouldn't shock me.
Best Music (Original Score)
Volker Bertelmann, All Quiet on the Western Front
Justin Hurwitz, Babylon
Carter Burwell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Son Lux, Everything Everywhere All at Once
John Williams, The Fabelmans
Who I think will win: Volker Bertelmann, All Quiet on the Western Front
Who I think should win: John Williams, The Fabelmans
I've seen all 5 films in this category and I feel like it might be a complete toss-up. Nobody is really favored over the others to win this category from what I have read.
Best Sound
Viktor Prášil, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler, Lars Ginzel, and Stefan Korte, All Quiet on the Western Front
Julian Howarth, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Dick Bernstein, Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers, and Michael Hedges, Avatar: The Way of Water
Stuart Wilson, William Files, Douglas Murray, and Andy Nelson, The Batman
David Lee, Wayne Pashley, Andy Nelson, and Michael Keller, Elvis
Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon, and Mark Taylor, Top Gun: Maverick
Who I think will win: Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon, and Mark Taylor, Top Gun: Maverick
I've seen all 5 films in this category and to me, Top Gun: Maverick, has to win this award.
Best Visual Effects
Frank Petzold, Viktor Müller, Markus Frank, and Kamil Jafar, All Quiet on the Western Front
Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, and Daniel Barrett, Avatar: The Way of Water
Dan Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langlands, and Dominic Tuohy, The Batman
Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, R. Christopher White, and Dan Sudick, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Ryan Tudhope, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson, and Scott R. Fisher, Top Gun: Maverick
Who I think will win: Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, and Daniel Barrett, Avatar: The Way of Water
Who I think should win: Ryan Tudhope, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson, and Scott R. Fisher, Top Gun: Maverick
I've seen all 5 films in this category and I think the blue man group, er, Avatar: The Way of Water, will take this one home. It is quite visually stunning even though the plot sucks, haha.
Best Animated Short Film
The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse
The Flying Sailor
Ice Merchants
My Year of Dicks
An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake, and I Think I Believe It
Who I think will win: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse
Who I think should win: My Year of Dicks
I've seen all 5 films in this category. I really did enjoy The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse, but I also want to hear a presenter say out loud "And the winner is - My Year of Dicks"
Best Live Action Short Film
An Irish Goodbye
Ivalu
Le Pupille
Night Ride
The Red Suitcase
Who I think will win: Le Pupille
Who I think should win: Anything but Le Pupille
I've only seen 2 of the 5 films in this category. Le Pupille is on Disney+ and currently seems to be a favorite, but I must say that I was quite bored while watching.
Best Documentary Short
The Elephant Whisperers
Haulout
How Do You Measure a Year?
The Martha Mitchell Effect
Stranger at the Gate
Who I think will win: Stranger at the Gate
I've seen 4 of the 5 films in this category. Stranger at the Gate has my pick and I do think it will win.
And there you have it, my predictions for the 2023 Oscars. If you enjoyed this blog, like films yourself, and want to follow me on Letterboxd, you can do so here.
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